Saturday, July 25, 2015

The US Federal Reserve plans to raise interest rates this year on the back of an improving American economy, and that is taking the shine off gold. ... Why? Because gold is a store of wealth for investors, but generates no returns from regular interest payments or dividend income. Investors have been happy to park their money in gold over the past six years while returns from other 'safe haven' assets have remained low and the economic backdrop has remained volatile. But, with borrowing costs set to rise, commodities, such as gold, are losing favor with investors, as higher returns can start to be generated elsewhere. The UK interest rate is 0.5pc. In the US, the interest rate, set by the Federal Reserve, is 0.25pc. US Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen has suggested interest rates should rise by the end of the year, while Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, also signaled that UK interest rates could begin to rise around the beginning of 2016, if not earlier. .. The US dollar has been growing stronger, boosted by a resurgent American economy and the prospect for a rate rise in the next few months. The US dollar index, which tracks the price of the US dollar against the world’s currencies, has increased by more than 20pc within the past year.   The value of the US dollar typically follows an inverse relationship with commodities. When the dollar strengthens against other major currencies, the prices of commodities - such as gold - typically drop. When the dollar weakens, commodities generally move higher. The main reason for this is because most commodities are freely traded in international markets and prices are quoted in US dollars.  Foreign buyers will purchase commodities with dollars, so, when the value of the dollar drops, they will have more buying power, and demand increases. Similarly, when the value of the dollar rises, they have less buying power and commodities become more expensive, muting demand and sending commodity prices lower. .. The slowdown in the Chinese economy, the world's largest consumer of commodities, has also caused the gold price to fall steadily since 2011.  China has increased its reserves of gold bullion by 60pc since 2009. However, on Friday the People’s Bank of China revealed it has been buying far less gold than expected. China updated its gold bullion reserves for the first time since 2009 last week, showing that while reserves had increased, the 57pc gain to 1,658 metric tons was smaller than the 3,500 tons analysts had been expecting.

Friday, July 24, 2015

I'm not sure the Germans will see  - between Draghi, the IMF, the US, the French, the FT, the Economist etc etc the pressure on them for debt relief is coming up fast. It was a calm delivery, but like a stiletto between the shoulder blades. Given the Germans have conceded maturity extension is legally possible, that is where Draghi and the IMF are positioning the debate. The question is whether the maturity extension is so great as to amount to an enormous upfront write off of not. The Germans say not. But as I read it 2 out of 3 of the Troika - the IMF and ECD - are clear it needs to be the former, and of the EU the governments are split with some like France and Italy going with the ECB and IMF, and some with the Germans in resisting that. With the Bundestag out of the way the pressure will mount enormously in coming weeks, especially with the IMF's not so subtle threat it will not be joining the bailout if this is not addressed. At this moment it looks like the Germans, after all, could be the big losers. And my suspicion is, reading Draghi, they will fear that too, and be furious. The great irony is it was the Germans who insisted on having the IMF in the deal over Tsipras' objections.

Thursday, July 23, 2015

The desperately needed bridge finance will give Greece breathing space as it embarks on the tortuous process of agreeing a three-year bailout that could be worth up to €86bn.
Around €50bn is likely to come from the eurozone’s permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, which on Friday gave its approval for talks to commence.  The formal launch of talks on a three-year bailout comes after the Bundestag and other eurozone parliaments, including those in Austria, France and Finland, voted in favour of opening negotiations with Greece.  Germany, Greece’s largest creditor, has so far resisted large-scale debt relief and is implacably opposed to any step that could lead to reducing Greece’s debts. Schäuble argues that any reduction in Greece’s debts – known as a “haircut” – would be illegal under EU law.  The German finance ministry has said that giving Greece more time to pay its debts is a possibility but maintains that Greece’s current level of borrowing would be bearable if the country reformed its economy to spur economic growth.
The creditors have effectively set themselves a deadline of 20 August to resolve this argument. By that date Greece must repay €3.2bn to the ECB, but all emergency bridging finance will be exhausted by the end of July.  The €7bn bridging loan paves the way for an elaborate exercise in international shuffling of cash from one creditor to another.  Greece will use part of the €7bn from the EU to repay €4.2bn to the European Central Bank on Monday. Failure to make this payment could have forced Greece out of the eurozone. It will use another tranche of the loan to repay €2bn to the IMF to clear arrears, freeing the fund to lend Greece more money.

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Grecia a achitat Fondului Monetar Internațional o serie de arierate în valoare totală de aproximativ două miliarde de euro și nu se mai află în incapacitate de plată. Anunțul a fost făcut de purtătorul de cuvânt al FMI, Gerry Rice, transmit Deutsche Welle și Reuters.'Prin urmare, Grecia nu mai are datorii restante către FMI', a explicat Gerry Rice. Acesta a adăugat: 'Așa cum s-a anunțat, FMI este gata să continue să asiste Grecia în eforturile de redresare a economie și de revenire a stabilității financiare'.  Luni, Grecia a plătit luni 4,2 miliarde de euro, reprezentând principalul și dobânzile dintr-un împrumut acordat anterior de BCE, și a rambursat un credit de 500 milioane de euro către Banca Centrală a Greciei.
Reprezentanții creditorilor internaționali (UE, BCE și FMI) și ai fondului de salvare al zonei euro (ESM) se vor afla în curând la Atena, a anunțat luni purtătorul de cuvânt al executivului european, Margaritis Schinas, transmite Agerpres.

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

The Federal Reserve is still on course to raise interest rates this year, as delays could mean the central bank is forced to hike more rapidly than it is safe later, its chairman has said.
Janet Yellen indicated that delaying increases in interest rates would mean that the central bank could "have to do so more rapidly" if caught behind the curve.   In her testimony before the Senate Committee on Banking on Wednesday, she said that if the economy progresses as expect, "economic conditions would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise" the Fed's key interest rate. ...Ms Yellen said: "The situation in Greece remains difficult. And China continues to grapple with the challenges posed by high debt, weak property markets and volatile financial conditions."   Mr Page said that the central bank would most likely start to raise its rates in September, but that it is not expect to clearly signal this until closer to that date. The Fed chairman remarked that "economic growth abroad could also pick up more quickly than observers generally anticipate, providing additional support for US economic activity".   Yellen has no intention of raising rates, as to do so would implode the asset bubbles and Ponzi schemes that allow the most efficient looting and asset stripping of the 99% by the Fed's oligarch accomplices. As long as ZIRP and QE can be maintained, savers and pensioners will be forced into the Wall Street-Federal Reserve Rigged Speculative Casino, where they can be fleeced at will by Yellen's Wall Street co-conspirators. So ignore the incessant droning by Yellen & other Fed mouthpieces about raising rates - it will not happen unless and until Yellen has to invervene to stop a dollar crash. The Fed's War on Savers and the responsible has no end in sight.

Monday, July 20, 2015

Senator Rand Paul on Tuesday officially sued the Obama administration, seeking to stop it from enforcing a federal banking law that has led large numbers of Americans overseas to renounce their citizenship.  In a move with implications for his 2016 presidential bid, Mr. Paul joined six other plaintiffs in a suit filed by Republicans Overseas Action (ROA), arguing that the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) is unconstitutional. The 2010 law, passed by a Democratic Congress, has been a centerpiece of President Obama’s campaign to crack down on wealthy Americans he says have been dodging taxes by hiding their money overseas.  But it has become enormously controversial, empowering foreign banks to turn over overseas  Americans’ private information to foreign governments, who then must turn it over to the Treasury Department.
The lawsuit argues the agreements the Treasury Department reached with foreign countries to gain access to Americans’ banking information violates the Constitution’s Article II, Section 2 that requires two-thirds of U.S. senators present and voting to approve a foreign treaty.
 “This lawsuit speaks volumes about the Obama administration’s lawlessness and disregard for the Constitution,” said Jim Bopp Jr., lead attorney for the plaintiffs who, collectively, have eight separate constitutional claims against the law and its enforcement mechanisms.
Mr.. Bopp noted he had only one Constitutional claim in the landmark Citizens United vs. FEC case, for which he was the original architect.  A total of 1,335 Americans renounced their U.S. citizenship during the first three months of 2015, according to figures released by the IRS.
That suggests U.S. renunciations will hit another new high this year. Last year, 3,415 Americans gave up their citizenship — 15 times more than in 2008.  “Americans overseas are suffering egregious unconstitutional violations of their privacy and are facing draconian fines by the vigorous enforcement of the law by the Obama administration,” said Mr. Bopp. “The vast majority of overseas Americans are law-abiding middle class Americans, but the Obama administration treats them all as tax cheats.”   “We want the federal court to stop Obama’s Internal Revenue Service by immediately issuing a preliminary injunction that will protect Americans overseas until a trial can be held by the court.,” Mr. Bopp said.  Critics emphasize the government overreach that they say the law’s efforts to nail tax cheaters represents.

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Following weeks of stock market turmoil, China has confounded expectations that its economic growth would slow further in the second quarter, with gross domestic product rising by 7%.
Analysts had widely predicted that economic growth would dip from 7% in the first quarter to around 6.8% in the second.  However, GDP held steady, officials from China’s National Bureau of Statistics claimed on Wednesday morning. The figure still represents the lowest level of growth since the 2009 global financial crisis but is in line with Beijing’s official target for 2015 of “around 7%”... 
However, there were immediate doubts over the growth figure’s reliability with the announcement sparking renewed debate over the trustworthiness of Beijing’s statistics.
The fact that the figure was exactly in line with the Communist party’s 2015 full-year growth target “raises suspicions,” said Yang. “There is the issue of credibility, certainly.”   China’s premier, Li Keqiang, tried to put a brave face on the recent stock market collapse during a meeting on Friday with economists and business leaders in Beijing.
“China’s economy still boasts remarkable tenacity, potential and flexibility,” Li said, according to state media. “There is little doubt that China’s potential for medium-high growth remains underpinned by strong, long-term fundamentals. The global economic recovery is full of twists and turns. China should push forward its own development with stronger confidence and greater efforts.”
However, Beijing has faced criticism for its handling of the crash. Chinese president Xi Jinping has vowed to reduce Beijing’s role in the economy but as stocks plunged earlier this month the Communist party took drastic measures, including temporarily halting initial public offerings.  ....No-one, even in China, believes this number. Party apparatchiks deliver a number to suit the forecast, to do otherwise would cause Xi to lose face and further erode trust in the crashing stock market. The real number is probably around 5%.