WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday set the stage for its first interest rate hike since 2006, signaling its confidence in the U.S. economy.  Yet the Fed slightly downgraded its economic outlook, saying that growth "has moderated somewhat" because of weak export growth and a sluggish housing market, among other factors. It said it will raise its benchmark short-term rate, now near zero, only when the labor market improves further and inflation prospects pick up from the current meager pace.   Fed policymakers "have not decided on the timing of the initial increase" in the rate's target range, said the Fed's statement released at 2 p.m. ET following a two-day meeting. The move, however, is expected this year...The Fed's policymaking committee dropped a pledge to "be patient" as it considers raising the fed funds rate, opening the door to a rate hike as early as June. The Fed said it will increase the rate "when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2% objective over the medium term."  A rise in the funds rate would ripple across the economy, pushing up rates for everything from mortgages and car loans to corporate bonds and personal savings accounts.  Although job growth has been strong, the Fed is hesitant to raise rates with inflation and wage growth persistently weak but policymakers have said they expect price increases to drift toward the Fed's goal as oil prices rise.  "Just because we removed the word 'patient' from the statement, that doesn't mean that we're going to be impatient" as policymakers weigh an initial rate increase, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said at a news conference after the Fed statement was released. She said the wording change "doesn't necessarily mean (a rate hike) will occur in June...although we can't rule that out."

A stony-faced Merkel reiterated what she had said in Brussels on Friday after a late-night session with Tsipras – that a 20 February agreement with the eurozone extending Greece’s bailout until the end of June remained the yardstick. That agreement obliges Tsipras to deliver a persuasive menu of detailed fiscal and structural reforms which need to be vetted by the eurozone before any further bailout funding can be released.  Asked if she had reached any agreements with Tsipras, Merkel avoided the question and stressed she was only one of 19 eurozone national leaders.

Tsipras was believed to have told the German leader that Greece faced insolvency within weeks without the release of more funds, which are being held up because he has failed to produce a coherent policy package.   “The medium-term liquidity problem is well known,” he said. “We inherited it.”   While neither side wants Greece to leave the euro, the lack of agreement in Berlin signalled a digging in of hardline positions on both sides that could result in a major negotiating failure.   Support for the Greek government remains strong at home, in inverse proportion to the lack of trust in Tsipras among his main creditors. A growing majority of Germans do not believe Greece will do what it must to stay in the euro and would prefer to see it leave. The Eurasia group risk consultancy on Monday raised its assessment of the chance of Greece having to quit the euro to 30%, up from a previous 20%.   “The prospects of a deal over Greece are diminishing, as Germany, the eurogroup and Greece continue to posture,” said Mujtaba Rahman, its eurozone analyst. “The chances of capital controls, and ultimately, Greece’s exit from the euro, are also increasing. While Berlin still wants to keep Greece in the eurozone, it can and will not be flexible regarding the conditions attached to more financial aid.”

OECD - In its latest interim economic assessment the thinktank warns that against a backdrop of better growth prospects for big economies, including in the eurozone, there is a growing risk of financial instability.  Its prime concern is that low borrowing costs and inflation mean activity is driven by easy money rather than fundamentals. The OECD highlights an over-reliance on central bank policy and warns that more needs to be done by governments in terms of tax and spending policy as well as structural changes.   Lower oil prices and widespread monetary easing have brought the world economy to a turning point, with the potential for the acceleration of growth that has been needed in many countries,” said OECD chief economist Catherine Mann.    “There is no room for complacency, however, as excessive reliance on monetary policy alone is building up financial risks, while not yet reviving business investment. A more balanced policy approach is needed, making full use of fiscal and structural reforms, as well as monetary policy, to ensure sustainable growth and public finances over the longer term.”   The OECD used its latest in-depth report into the UK to warn that more needs to be done to fix the country’s poor record on productivity, which it sees as key to raising living standards. The thinktank also had some encouraging words for George Osborne as he heads towards the election – it praised his economic policies and renewed backing for the chancellor’s austerity drive.   The group’s latest outlook highlighted a boost to the US economy from strong domestic demand, which, combined with a strengthening dollar, was adding to demand in the rest of the world. The euro area should benefit from low oil prices, monetary stimulus and euro depreciation, which “combine to offer the chance to escape from stagnation”, the OECD added.

Summarising the outlook for other big economies, the thinktank says:  In Japan, monetary and fiscal stimulus provide the impetus for faster near-term growth, but longer-term challenges remain. A gradual slowdown in China, towards the new official growth target, is expected to continue. India is expected to be the fastest-growing major economy over the coming two years, while the outlook is likely to worsen for many commodity exporting nations, with Brazil falling into recession.”

Oh I do enjoy watching a contest between two sides I dislike equally, vying to see who can pee the furthest! (BTW, Telegraph, where do you keep finding these marvelous pictures of tattered EU flags?)  " .... the head of the eurogroup of finance ministers warned Greece may need to impose "Cyprus style" capital controls." Ah yes indeed. Consistently sound advice from a Great Fraud of Europe bureaucrat.  Capital has been flooding out of Greece for months. They have no money and are reduced to raiding pension funds (the equivalent of stealing grannie's coin purse). In any case, Greece's recent answers to most GFoE 'warnings' have been near-unprintable so what's the likely response to this one going to be?   As summer nears I believe I'll break out a camp chair, pop some popcorn and prepare to watch this show with interest... Greece should NOT have been able to join the EU under the rules, But the chaps who fiddled the way for Greece are now the chaps who are profiting from the interest payments Germany has earned 2 billion euros so far.  The banks have already been paid out by the tax payer and got away scot free. The greeks need to perform as they pledged, stuff the repayments and default. The Gov't of Greece is there to protect the Greek people, not run them into the ground. Watch out it is coming to the rest of us soon, who ever heard of a "bail in" to help a failing business? i.e bank. that is the new rule in the EU, May soon appear in the UK....

So, not a single foreign investor at this morning's Greek T-bill auction - same as last week. Only Greek banks were arm-twisted into rolling them over again.  Hand to mouth stuff - settlement date for today's bids is Friday, when the prior T-bills mature. No new money was raised, simply refinancing.  This gives the ECB a massive problem - as not even a shred of 'market access' to support a decision to extend ELA. It would be demonstrably financing the Greek State if it increases ELA tomorrow (other than offsetting capital outflows, as before)..

The tensions reflect a deterioration in trust between Greece and its international creditors in recent weeks.  Escalating fears that the country may not be able to secure the funds it needs to stay solvent until June, the head of the eurogroup of finance ministers warned Greece may need to impose "Cyprus style" capital controls.   Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who is also the Dutch finance minister, equated the plight of the two debt-stricken nations saying it was important to "think about Cyprus" as an example Greece could follow. "The amount of cash ... is declining by the day."   Mr Dijsselbloem's comments could hint at the reasons behind Athens' reluctance to conduct negotiations with the bloc's finance ministers, preferring instead to carry out talks among the EU's leaders at a European Council meeting in Brussels...The Greek government has demanded bail-out talks be carried out at an EU summit later this week, frustrating its creditors in already strained bail-out negotiations.   According to reports, Athens refused to update European finance ministers about its plans to implement vital reforms at a scheduled teleconference yesterday.  One European official was quoted as saying the country's brinkmanship was "something of the last straw". The International Monetary Fund, one of Greece's main three creditors, was reported to have called Greece "the most unhelpful client" the Fund has dealt with in their 70-year history during the ill-tempered teleconference.  Athens is due to make a €350m repayment to the Fund THIS MONTH.

A senior Bank of England official has said that Greece will never be able to get rid of its enormous debt mountain, since the "political pain" that its leaders would suffer would make it impossible.

Alex Brazier said that Greece could, in theory, run a surplus large enough to shrink its debt mountain, which currently runs to 176pc of GDP, after bail-outs worth €245bn.   However, he said no elected government would be able to do so, suggesting that Greece will be left with an enormous debt overhang for some time.  Figures from the Bank of Greece released on Monday showed the country had fallen back into deficit over the first two months of the year. Greece was in the red by €684m January and February, compared to a €139m surplus it registered over the same period last year.   Mr Brazier is a senior figure at the Bank, as its executive director for financial stability strategy and risk and a member of the Financial Policy Committee, which tries to ensure financial stability in the UK.    I would like all of those who make the claims about "whining" Greeks and all these very 'humanitarian' comments to imagine what it is like to have 40-50% of their incomes lost due to adjustment policies. Fat chance these 'humanitarians' will and - what is worse - many of the people here making these comments are most likely Greeks themselves.  Apart from that, it is true that Greece has been tainted by corruption, malfunctioning and ailing institutions, and a mentality of extremely low trust - all these making a vicious circle.  But ask yourselves this (at least those of you who do bother to read and whose open mind is not narrower in reality than the margins of a school notebook):  This has been going on for decades if not centuries, any wonder why it came to a boil now, the debt especially? It is because of the whole banking crisis and more specifically banks lending Greece in the good-ol' years and now basically getting away with it in all of EU... "One can surely agree with the logical and legal demand for Greece to pay its debt, however, one thing I can't understand is: What continual logical sequence is connecting faulty banking system, obviously wrong political decisions leading to fiscal imbalance and bankruptcy, on the one side, with massive public cuts affecting only simple people, on the other side, in other words: "Why punish simple people for bankers and politicians wrongdoings?!"    Why are people making wrong decisions put automatically out of the equation and not took under consideration?"

Relations between Greece and its creditors reached breaking point on Thursday as the country's finance minister accused the European Central Bank of "asphyxiating" the cash-strapped economy.

In a series of traded insults, Yanis Varoufakis said the ECB, which has tightened the noose on the Leftist government, was "pursuing a policy that can be considered asphyxiating toward our government."   His comments came before Germany's Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann said Athens had "squandered the trust" of its European partners.  As one of Greece's main three international creditors, the ECB has rebuffed Athens' requests to raise short-term debt to alleviate an impending funding crisis.   Greece, which has yet to be granted access to €7.2bn in bail-out funds, is scrambling to pay €1.2bn in loans to the IMF before the end of the month.

Athens has also been seeking a €2bn increase in emergency funding for its banks as deposit flight has accelerated over the past month. According to reports, the central bank decided to raise the ceiling by just €600m on Thursday. Greek lenders have been increasingly reliant on the expensive emergency funds from Frankfurt after the ECB stopped its ordinary lending to the country. The country's Eurosystem funding reached a 13-month high of €104bn, in February according to the Bank of Greece. But Mr Weidmann, who sits on the ECB's governing council, said the assistance had to be "temporary" and could only continue as long as Greek lenders remained solvent. 

The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is in Brussels today to meet the European Commission’s President Jean-Claude Juncker.  The pair will attempt to make some progress on a way forward for Greece, after eurozone finance ministers rejected Athens’ reform proposals on Monday. Juncker said he was ready to make “proposals” to overcome the differences between Greece and its eurozone partners.  I’m not satisfied with the developments in recent weeks. I don’t think we have made sufficient progress.  I’m totally excluding a failure. I don’t want a failure. I would like Europeans to go together. This is not a time for division. This is a time for coming together.

Tsipras said he was optimistic the political will existed to find a solution soon.