Showing posts with label prezent. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prezent. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

If history is any guide, there are three major issues that warrant careful monitoring in the coming months. First, the US is unlikely to stand by for long if its currency appreciates significantly and its international competitiveness deteriorates substantially. Companies are already reporting earning pressures due to the rising dollar, and some are even asking their governments to play a more forceful role in countering a stealth “currency war.” Second, because the dollar is used as a reserve currency, a rapid rise in its value could put pressure on those who have used it imprudently. At particular risk are emerging country companies that, having borrowed overwhelmingly in dollars but generating only limited dollar earnings, might have large currency mismatches in their assets and liabilities or their incomes and expenditures.And, finally, sharp movements in interest rates and exchange rates can cause volatility in other markets, most notably for equities. Because regulatory controls and market constraints have made brokers less able to play a countercyclical role by accumulating inventory on their balance sheets, the resulting price instability is likely to be large. There is a risk that some portfolios will be forced into disordered unwinding. Furthermore, the central banks’ policy of curtailing so-called “volatile volatility” is likely to be challenged.

Monday, December 7, 2015

Well, it looks like the oportunity to vote will be barred in the EU...

Denmark delivered a pointed rebuke to Brussels last night as the country rejected a government proposal to deepen the EU member's participation in the bloc's justice cooperation. After a three-week campaign when the two sides were neck-and-neck, 53 per cent voted 'no' compared to 47 per cent who voted 'yes'. The result will be a worrying reminder to David Cameron of the risk he is taking in putting the UK’s membership of the EU to a similar referendum vote. "The Danish have said 'No to more EU!'" exclaimed Kristian Thulesen Dahl, leader of the Eurosceptic Danish People's Party (DPP) at the start of his celebratory speech to party activists in Copenhagen's Christiansborg Palace. "This is a significant no. I have full respect for the Danes' decision." Mr Lokke Rasmussen said after the result. He said he would hold a series of emergency meetings with other political parties on Monday over how to move forward, before meeting Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission's president and EU President Donald Tusk in Brussels the following Friday. "It's my experience that parties on both the yes and the no side agree that it would be a disaster for Denmark and the Danish police if we slipped out of Europol," he said.  Soren Espersen, the DPP's vice chairman, told the Telegraph that he felt the result could aid the UK's own negotiations. "I see this as a support for David Cameron because he needs to tell Brussels that it's not only the British who have these anti-federal feelings. We've always had them and we still have them to a rather tremendous degree."

Friday, December 4, 2015

Sixteen Romanian energy projects are included by the European Commission on the list of projects of common interest (PCI) to achieve the objectives of the Energy Union, according to the first annual report on this initiative. By including them on the list, projects are eligible for funding via Connecting Europe financing facility.  European Commissioner for Climate and Energy, Arias Cañete, said at the launch of the report: “A modern and reliable energy infrastructure is an essential element for the energy to circulate freely in Europe. All these projects will support the integration of energy markets, will diversify sources and supply routes and will end the isolation of some Member States. Our funds, invested in these projects, will serve the goal of providing to all Europeans clean energy at affordable prices.” Maroš Šefčovič, Vice-President responsible for energy union, said: “After nine months, we can say with confidence that we did not strayed from the path to realize the Energy Union. My messages for 2016 are clear. First, the EU should continue to play a leading role in the transition to a low carbon economy. Second, this transition should be socially equitable and focused on the consumer. Third, geopolitical challenges that we faced this year will not disappear. Also, 2016 will be the year when we will establish a robust system of governance, ensuring predictability and transparency, the environment that investors need. In conclusion, 2016 will be a year of accomplishments!”

Thursday, December 3, 2015

There are three parallels between the Eurozone and the migration crises: the hybrid nature of European governance structures that are little prepared to face up to major external challenges; the preeminence of Germany as a key player; and the important role of a peripheral country – Greece – as a conduit for an external challenge that is becoming an internal crisis.  These issues will determine whether and how the EU will overcome the refugee crisis. They are also, all the same, the areas in which the EU’s capacities have been most stretched by the Eurozone crisis.  First, much as the Eurozone, Schengen reflects the willingness of EU member-states to cooperate in an area that touches upon the core of national sovereignty (border control), but without fully delegating decision-making and legislative and regulatory initiatives to a supranational agency (like the Commission in ‘first pillar’ policies). While the involvement of the Commission can be significant, political impetus requires intergovernmental agreement while effective implementation relies on national policies, in border control as much as macroeconomic policy. This makes both structures slow in responding to external challenges.

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

The Organization for Cooperation and Economic Development (OCDE) has worsened its estimates concerning the growth of the world's economy, for the second time in the last three months, as the slowdown of the emerging markets is affecting other countries as well, such as Germany and Japan.
The OCDE forecasts that the global economy will see a 2.9% advance this year, down from its 3% September estimate, and after the 3.4% growth of 2014, respectively. According to the OCDE, the economic growth will accelerate to 3.3% next year, down from the previous 3.6% forecast.  "The growth outlook for the global economy has worsened this year. The forecast for emerging markets is currently the main reason for the global uncertainty", the OCDE warns: "The difficulties on the emerging markets are greater. If the situation of those countries deteriorates, the growth of Japan and the Eurozone will be affected".   According to the OCDE, the Eurozone will see 1.5% growth in 2015, and 1.8% in 2016.
Another flop for Jean-Claude Juncker's migration initiative as a major bounty fund for Africa raises just €78million - out of a target of €1.8 billion. The European Commission president wanted to raise the money to give to African states in exchange for them accepting the deportation of migrants. But a whip round among member states raised just a fraction of the target, leaving the entire deportation programme in doubt. It follows the flop of the relocation scheme which has moved just over 100 people out of a target of 160,000. I'm told Juncker and Merkel will press for more money for Turkey

Monday, November 9, 2015

Many years ago when Alan Greenspan first proposed using monetary policy to control economies, the critics said this was far too broad a brush.  After the dot.com crash Alan Greenspan loosened monetary policy to get the economy going again. The broad brush effect stoked a housing boom.
When he tightened interest rates, to cool down the economy, the broad brush effect burst the housing bubble. The teaser rate mortgages unfortunately introduced enough of a delay so that cause and effect were too far apart to see the consequences of interest rate rises as they were occurring.
The end result 2008.  With this total failure of monetary policy to control an economy and a clear demonstration of the broad brush effect behind us, everyone decided to use the same idea after 2008.
Interest rates are at rock bottom around the globe, with trillions of QE pumped into the global economy.  The broad brush effect has blown bubbles everywhere. 
The underlying problem is that the global monetary system has failed with too much debt in existence.
The current monetary system has the following characteristics:
1) It is debt based, new money can only be created from new debt
2) It uses compound interest
Compound interest is an exponential function that, without prudent lending, will run away to infinity at some point.  When money creation lies with banks, there is always the over-whelming desire to increase profits by lending out more than would be prudent (their profit comes from the interest received).  The temptation of jam today, makes borrowers forget about the penury tomorrow.
The system relies on prudent lending by bankers who are purveyors of the debt products, e.g. loans, mortgages, etc ...

Friday, November 6, 2015

The Chinese economy has continued to struggle despite repeated efforts to stimulate activity, according to official data, raising the prospect of further measures from Beijing if the country is to reach its growth targets.  China's enormous manufacturing sector surprisingly contracted for the third consecutive month in October, while its services sector - the economy's growth engine - expanded at the slowest rate since 2008's financial crisis.  The figures raise new fears that growth in the world's second-biggest economy could fall below 7pc this year, after official data last month showed expansion of 6.9pc in the year to September. Weak demand in China has already had a huge effect on the world economy, potentially delaying interest rate rises and hitting commodity prices.  The country's central bank has repeatedly cut bank lending requirements in an attempt to boost growth and ward off deflation, but economists suggested the new figures could herald further measures. "As deflation risks intensify, a further RRR cut [the reserves a bank must hold against lending] before end of this year is still possible," economists at ANZ Bank said. Sunday's PMI figures from China's National Bureau of Statistics gave a reading of 49.8 for the country's manufacturing sector, below the 50 mark that separates contraction from expansion for the third month in a row. Markets had widely expected a rebound, with expectations set at 50..."Because of the recent weak recovery in the global economy and downward pressure in the domestic economy, manufacturers still face a severe import and export situation," Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the NBS, said.  Meanwhile, the services sector, which has helped make up for disappointing factory output, saw its slowest growth for seven years. The non-manufacturing PMI fell from 53.4 in September to 53.1. China's official figures for economic growth, which are widely believed to over-estimate the true level, fell to 6.9pc in the third quarter of the year, the lowest pace of expansion since early 2009. This compares to a rough target of 7pc set by Beijing.

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Well, Deutsche Bank, VW, immigrant welcome mat manufacture rates down, Mother Merkel beatification questioned. Bit bumpy huh!...Deutsche Bank has unveiled plans to split-up its struggling investment banking operations as part of a shake-up which will see the departure of a host of senior executives. The bank, which employs more than 8,000 people in the UK, said Colin Fan, who was co-head of the investment bank, has resigned, while Michele Faissola, the head of the asset and wealth management business, will also leave. Stefan Krause, who was Deutsche’s finance chief until earlier this year, is also departing at the end of the month. Stephan Leithner, currently a member of the lender’s management board, is quitting to join private equity house EQT ... The dramatic overhaul is part of a plan by John Cryan, who became co-chief executive in July, to revive the lender’s fortunes. As well as the personnel changes, Deutsche said that its investment bank, which is Europe’s largest, will be divided into two divisions: a new unit called Global Markets, comprising sales and trading activities, and another called Corporate & Investment Banking, incorporating its corporate finance and global transactions banking operations. The shake-up comes less than a fortnight after the bank revealed that it would slump to a €6.2bn loss during its third quarter. The huge loss was driven by a €5.8bn impairment charge that Deutsche blamed on a higher capital requirements, which hit the value of the investment bank, and a write-down of its Postbank business, which is being sold.

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

OOHHH - YESSS - Another step in the collapse of the euro....

Poland consolidated its rightwing shift on Sunday as exit polls showed voters had handed an absolute majority in its parliamentary election to Law and Justice, a Eurosceptic party that is against immigration, wants family-focused welfare spending and has threatened to ban abortion and in-vitro fertilisation.  The current ruling party, Civic Platform, conceded defeat following the first exit poll, published by Ipsos moments after polling stations closed at 9pm (8pm GMT), which gave the national conservative Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (Law and Justice party) 39.1% of the vote, putting it far ahead of Civic Platform on 23.4%.  Jarosław Kaczyński, Law and Justice’s chairman and the twin brother of Poland’s late president Lech, immediately declared victory...the result would give Law and Justice 242 seats in the 460-member lower house of parliament, meaning the party could govern alone and that its lead candidate, 52-year-old Beata Szydło, is likely to be appointed prime minister...“If Law and Justice end up governing alone with an allied president, Poland will become another Hungary,” said Prof Radosław Markowski of the Polish Academy of Sciences, a reference to the extremist rightwing views of the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán...Most of Europe is moving to the Right. Euroscepticism and anti-immigration feelings are running at an all-time high.  Even in liberal nations like Sweden where the politicians are grimly trying to maintain open door policies, the ordinary citizens are heading in another direction entirely, and showing their distaste for such policies by burning down refugee camps and (regrettably) going into schools and killing immigrants.  Merkel is becoming increasingly isolated and reviled - even by many German citizens.  If ever proof was needed that multiculturalism is a failed social experiment - we now have it writ large. I feel a BREXIT coming on. And it feels good....HAHAHA...Merkel should threaten Poland with Pexit until they learn to vote in the correct party.

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

European justice needs a single European legal space, efficient justice needs simplified procedures.
The European Small Claims Procedure, in use since 2009, is a simplified procedure, based on standard forms, for recovering money owed by someone in another EU country.  New rules approved by Parliament today would broaden the use of the procedure, whilst safeguarding the procedural rights of citizens, by raising the threshold for claims covered by the cross-border disputes procedure from 2000 Euro to 5000. Up to now, the procedure was available only for cases with a value of up to 2000 Euro.  The proposed changes would make the procedure available for more cases, cut court fees and encourage the use of electronic communications, such as videoconferencing, and means for distance payments.  The European Parliament’s vote benefits EU citizens by providing simplified procedures for cross-border dispute resolution. National barriers will no longer be an insurmountable obstacle in judicial matters for individuals, nor, in particular, for SMEs. Electronic communication tools will facilitate the process for those involved.  "Good faith in the execution of civil and commercial contracts will be more vigorously protected and legal security will be guaranteed for the commercial circuit," said Daniel Buda MEP, the EPP Group's spokesperson on the issue.

Sunday, October 11, 2015

Britain is among a handful of shining lights in the global economy this year as the world sees the slowest period of growth since the depths of the financial crisis, according to the International Monetary Fund. The IMF edged up its forecast for UK growth in 2015 amid downgrades "across the board" for advanced and emerging economies. It said China's slowdown, falling commodity prices and an expected increase in US interest rates would all weigh on output.   "Britain is among a handful of shining lights in the global economy this year"  I think someone must be holding this shining light in your eyes. I'd recommend a read of the Whole of Government Accounts for 2013-14, and of course for 2014-15 when they finally come out.  Here's a quick extract from 2013-14 WGA for you. "Assets have increased by £39.8 billion (3.1%) from £1,297.5 billion in 2012-13 to £1,337.3 billion in 2013-14. Property, plant and equipment (PPE) increased by £15.8 billion due to increased assets under construction and new academies; financial assets increased by £17.6 billion due to increased loans and advances to banks (repos) and trade receivables increased by £10.2 billion due to increases in taxation due.  Liabilities have increased by £263.7 billion (9%) from £2,925.4 billion in 2012-13 to £3,189.1 billion in 2013-14. The key factors behind this increase were an increase in the pension liability of £130 billion (11.1%), followed by an increase in government borrowing of £99.9 billion (10%) and financial liabilities of £17.8 billion (3.8%)."  Assets up by 39.8bn and liabilities up by 263.7bn, that's a net worsening of position of 224bn or so in a single year. Then of course we have the private pension sector whose recognised deficits have increased, according to the PPF, by 320bn over the last two years, primarily thanks to emergency low rates. They are going to need to suck that money out of the wider economy over perhaps the next ten years, as indeed many major companies are already doing.  As to GDP, well we have 8.9% of our GDP being provided by imputed rents, the rent that you'd theoretically have to pay yourself if you didn't already own your property, though it generates no real additional economic activity. Another large chunk of nominal GDP growth come from importing 330,000 people a year that we make no provision in terms of infrastructure or services for, we simply degrade existing ones with the extra load. And the remainder? Well we borrow three or four times the actual organic GDP growth to support it.
I'm not sure we can afford things being this good much longer.

Saturday, October 10, 2015

The Federal Reserve isn't owned by the United States government it's an international business cartel, a privately owned business that generates over 80 billion dollars a year. More money than any company in America. They say that their objective is to reduce inflation, however, the lower interest is, the more people end up going bankrupt after retirement. When you have more bankruptcy, the banks are required to borrow more money from the federal reserve, increasing their profit margin. It seems to only logical that our monetary system should be controlled by a government agency rather than a privately owned business whose prime objective is to make money, and has financial motivation to cause bankruptcy and financial collapse....Markets have been manipulated for thirty years by and for the insiders, creating the too big to fail banks. Data is manipulated by the insiders, the regulators and government to demonstrate that all is well-nothing to see here. The last decade has seen nil interest rates and successive rounds of Quantitave Easing in an attempt to avoid deflation. This policy has totally failed. This leaves only painful policy options going forward. Orthodox economics which ignores the effect of money and debt on economics prescribes minus interest rates and counterfeit currencies. People who understand macro economics have identified the effects of debt, and understand that creating more debt is not a solution. World Debt is at 285% of GDP. Much of it is worthless and will never be paid back-so the action has to be write it off. Starting now...We know rates can't go up by more than 1% due to the quantum of personal debt in existence and the thin layer of surplus cash available for consumption every month.  More than 1% rate rise will signal defaults spiking. Any rise in rate will signal a slowdown in lending which is correlated highly with growth. This is a debt trap. Any inflation and monetary policy has nowhere to go. This is why there is a hang-up on whether to raise rates by 0.25%. Inflation watchers on one side (hawks) and growth seekers (doves). Frankly it's not worth bothering with, as the economy is stagnant at the zero lower bound whilst we operate in an environment of low growth capitalism. To solve the conundrum debt needs to see material reduction to create surplus cash flow, or wages need to increase - neither of which appear on the economic horizon within market fundamentalism.  Radical solutions would be debt jubilee with new controls on bank creation of endogenous money, regulate bank business models, and control spending / consumption to maintain 2% inflation, or increase wages significantly (with investors/ equity taking the hit - a move away from the conception of financial control and shareholder value to a stakeholder model) and drive a demand side response to deliver 'real' economic growth, not zero sum games we see today in stocks and real estate.

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

China is the world's largest creditor. Beijing's massive money reserves (it is still the largest holder foreign holder of US government debt) currently stand at a healthy $3.6 trillion.  For more than two decades, the world's second largest economy has built up a war chest of foreign currency assets to act as a buffer against global headwinds. But the decision on August 11, to tweak its exchange rate regime and engineer the largest single devaluation of the renminbi in 21 years, has thrust the question of reserve depletion into sharp relief. What most People don't realize is, it's a Game that cost lives who ain't playing it, all the Banks, including the Central Banks in existent, bar 3 Countries to date, that aren't under the control of the Rothschild, Rockefeller Bankers, the main players, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, so it's an illusion that any Country act's independently regarding anything to do with Fiat Money, the Dollar of make believe with Interest, that wasn't tied to Oil for nothing, cause when you control the Money Supply over the last 3 Centuries , you can scam your way into Wealth , control all the major Industries on the Planet, including all those that have a habit of blowing Folks up in the name of Democracy, who just happened to fund Hitler and all his ideals.
The Dollar's worthless, they want to move away from it, they start taking another Currency for the Oil etc, like Saddam, or  Gaddafi going Gold with the rest of Africa, which was to commence in 2011, then we get fed lies via the Media that they control, the Politician's and these People end up Dead, Countries destroyed , but these Rothschild Bankers don't hang around long before they've got a Central Bank up and running, that's the reality, but China's been buying and mining Gold for over 15 years, waiting for the day for it to all explode, Gold is going to be their Savior, unlike USA who've only got others and Brown, well he sold most of Britain's, pocket change to China, they ain't daft, it's only matter of time before China is declared the Winner...With US$, GBP, Euro and Yen increase of money supply (M1) and near negative money velocity (M3); any creditor including China would be bonkers to hold on to US$ denominated assets. The Chinese devaluations of the RMB to US$ have in effect increased their profits measured in RMB. Smart moves.  Why should China care about US$ denominated assets created by a debtor, especially since the US and European economies are in implosion mode, except for a loss of market which is substitutable with the likes of Russia, India or Africa?  However, think ahead and after the implosion of the US economy, the Chinese will mop up all those good value insolvent companies and other hard assets worldwide with the new global substitute for the US$- Brilliant and playing the game like a true capitalist. 'Trust the free market', said the Chicago School of economics, Reagan, Clinton, Bush(s), Blair and Brown.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Europe’s refugees did not appear out of thin air. They appeared from Turkey’s refugee camps, where admittedly, Turkish authorities are assisting migrants out of the country, onward to Europe. The crisis is a creation of NATO, by NATO, and for the purpose of justifying NATO’s next step in its faltering war against Syria.  Some reports even indicate that the refugees are receiving direct assistance from the Turkish government itself. The International New York Times’ Greek Kathimerini paper, in an article titled, “Refugee flow linked to Turkish policy shift,” claims (emphasis added):  A sharp increase in the influx of migrants and refugees, mostly from Syria, into Greece is due in part to a shift in Turkey’s geopolitical tactics, according to diplomatic sources. These officials link the wave of migrants into the eastern Aegean to political pressures in neighboring Turkey, which is bracing for snap elections in November, and to a recent decision by Ankara to join the US in bombing Islamic State targets in Syria. The analyses of several officials indicate that the influx from neighboring Turkey is taking place as Turkish officials look the other way or actively promote the exodus.
Catastrophes that are meant to look “sudden” and “unexpected” as well as “unstoppable” but are in fact, allowed to unfold within an operational theater completely controlled by the US and NATO constitutes instead a conspiracy – pitting desperate and/or exploited refugees intentionally sent out of Turkey and into Europe, against a manipulated, fearful, and ill-informed Western public.
Also brought into sharp focus, are the string of staged attacks allowed to unfold across Europe – allegedly the work of “ISIS.” In every case without exception, the perpetrators had been well-known to Western intelligence agencies, including the shooters involved in the Paris “Charlie Hebo massacre.” In that incident, all members involved were tracked by French security agencies for nearly 10 years. At least one member was even imprisoned, had traveled afterward to collude with Al Qaeda abroad, and returned to Europe, all while under surveillance. “Coincidentally,” for the 6 months needed to plan and carry out their final act, French security agencies stopped monitoring the group, claiming a lack of resources to do so.

Sunday, September 27, 2015

Germany has in fact "extensive" experience with "gasing people" ...

Audi research chief Ulrich Hackenberg, Porsche research chief Wolfgang Hatz, and VW US chief executive Michael Horn are to be dismissed by the VW board tomorrow, ITV is reporting a senior source saying.  VW has declined to comment.  Michael Horn was the VW executive who said earlier this week that the company had "totally screwed up". German newspaper Bild earlier reported that Mr Hackenberg and Mr Hatz would be dismissed by the board. The turmoil at VW could be an even bigger danger to Germany than the chaos in Greece, Reuters reports.  "All of a sudden, Volkswagen has become a bigger downside risk for the German economy than the Greek debt crisis," ING chief economist Carsten Brzeski told Reuters. "If Volkswagen's sales were to plunge in North America in the coming months, this would not only have an impact on the company, but on the German economy as a whole.”  Analysts warned that Germany's dependency on the automobile sector could become a threat to an economy that's already seeing a slowdown in GDP growth. "Should automobile sales go down, this could also hit suppliers and with them the whole economy," industry expert Martin Gornig from the Berlin-based DIW think tank told Reuters. In 2014, roughly 775,000 people worked in the German automobile sector. This is nearly 2pc of the whole workforce.  In addition, automobiles and car parts are Germany's most successful export - the sector sold goods worth more than €200bn to customers abroad in 2014, accounting for nearly a fifth of total German exports. "That's why this scandal is not a trifle. The German economy has been hit at its core," said Michael Huether, head of Germany's IW economic institute...There are questions over whether the testing authorities commissioned by motor manufacturers are truly independent. Do the results found in test conditions truly reflect real life situations on the road?"...Predictably, here's the start of how we're all getting f*cked over at some point. The answer is: no, the tests are designed to be a laboratory benchmark that allow comparative performance to be judged. They are not and were never intended to act as a reliable guide to what comes out of the tailpipe of an arbitrarily chosen car under any conditions. The manufacturers know this, and tellingly, so do the governments involved, because that is how the testing systems were originally specified. Certainly VW have done something extremely wrong here because they explicitly cheated the test, but other manufacturers, assuming they only designed to the test as opposed to cheating it, have done nothing wrong.

Friday, September 18, 2015

The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut its inflation and growth forecasts for 2015 and the next two years.  It expects inflation in the eurozone to remain "very low" for some years as threats to economic growth increase.  ECB president Mario Draghi said Europe's economic recovery would continue, "albeit at a somewhat weaker pace than expected".  The euro fell sharply as Mr Draghi also hinted that the bank could expand its stimulus programme if necessary.  He was speaking after the ECB kept its main interest rate on hold at 0.05%.  The ECB is now forecasting economic growth in the eurozone of 1.4% in 2015, down from 1.5%, and 1.7% in 2016, compared with its previous projection of 1.9%.   However, Mr Draghi said that risks to the outlook for economic growth and inflation had worsened since mid-August, when the latest projections were calculated.  "Lower commodity prices, a stronger euro, somewhat lower growth, have increased the risk to a sustainable path of inflation towards 2%," he told a news conference in Frankfurt.  The euro fell sharply following Mr Draghi's comments, dropping a cent against the dollar to $1.1127. He also admitted that inflation could turn negative in the coming months. The bank expected inflation to be 0.1% for 2015, rising to 1.5% in 2016 and 1.7% in 2017, dampened by lower energy prices.  The ECB made no change to its bond-buying programme, but Mr Draghi said it could be extended beyond its planned conclusion in September 2016 if necessary.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

A great part of the European project is tainted with the fact that the Dutch, Belgians Luxembourgers do not like the Germans, the French do not like the Brits, nobody likes the Spanish etc.and so it goes on all over Europe. Suppose the big plan is to merge all the debt into one big pile and as one the then union explodes dissolving all monetary ties as no one will be able to untangle the debt pile. The result is a complete mess almost parity with one big nuclear bomb over the entire EU. Except the working man and woman wake up not to radiation sickness but to an empty bank account and little or no coherent government structure or judiciary to collect fresh debts such as utilities, etc. Begin day one...Germany is set on a collision course with Brussels' visions for deeper eurozone integration, by setting out its objections to greater financial risk-sharing in the single currency. Berlin is determined to break the toxic link between distressed banks and indebted governments, and will insist on new "bail-in" procedures to impose losses on private sector creditors in the event of another financial crisis. The eurozone has been thrown into turmoil since 2009, after the banking systems of Ireland, Spain, and Greece were rescued by taxpayer money, loading debt on to government balance sheets. As Europe's largest creditor nation, Germany wants senior bank bondholders and private sector depositors to take the hit when banking or government solvency is threatened.   The red lines have been laid out in a Germany finance ministry "non-paper" seen by the Financial Times. It will be presented by Wolfang Schaeuble at an informal gathering of European finance ministers in Luxembourg today. "The restructuring of banks without taxpayers’ money will function only if sufficient resources are available for a bail-in and if member states ensure that the bail-in is legally enforceable," said the paper.

Friday, August 28, 2015

The Chinese government’s heavy handed efforts to contain recent stock market volatility – the latest move prohibits short-selling and sales by major shareholders – have seriously damaged its credibility. But China’s policy failures should come as no surprise. Policymakers there are far from the first to mismanage financial markets, currencies, and trade. Many European governments, for example, suffered humiliating losses defending currencies that were misaligned in the early 1990s.
Still, China’s economy remains a source of significant uncertainty. Indeed, although the performance of China’s stock market and that of its real economy has not been closely correlated, a major slowdown is under way. That is a serious concern, occupying finance ministries, central banks, trading desks, and importers and exporters worldwide. China’s government believed it could engineer a soft landing in the transition from torrid double-digit economic growth, fuelled by exports and investments, to steady and balanced growth underpinned by domestic consumption, especially of services. And, in fact, it enacted some sensible policies and reforms. But rapid growth obscured many problems. For example, officials, seeking to secure promotions by achieving short-term economic targets, misallocated resources; basic industries such as steel and cement built up vast excess capacity; and bad loans accumulated on the balance sheets of banks and local governments.

Sunday, August 16, 2015

Chinese policymakers have been engaged in a gargantuan effort to switch their export-dependent economy, reliant on volatile international demand, to another engine: consumer spending at home. At the same time, they are battling to bring more competition and free market approaches to stodgy state industries; and to tackle the legacy of an unsustainable borrowing binge, including bubbles in the property and stock markets.  These would be a formidable set of challenges for any political leaders, and while the state of the Chinese economy is hard to assess, a number of warning signs have been flashing, including a share price plunge on a scale reminiscent of the US’s 1929 Wall Street crash and most recently, an 8.3% drop in exports in July.  Official figures show GDP growth in line with Beijing’s 7% target; but Fathom’s analysts, who study other measures, such as electricity usage and freight volumes, say it appears to be closer to 4%. Britton describes the depreciation as “China, doubling-down on its bet,” and warned: “If we are right about the hardness of the landing they’re facing, you ain’t seen nothing yet.”  Adam Posen, of the Peterson Institute of International Economics in Washington, says China’s motivation may only become clear over time, but markets will be asking themselves “is depreciation a side-effect of liberalization or is liberalization cover for devaluation?”  But whatever the reasons behind it, Beijing’s economic gear shift will have far-reaching effects. Not everyone is as apocalyptic as Edwards; but he believes the new wave of deflation emanating from China could “overwhelm already struggling corporate profitability and take us back into outright recession”.  “As investors realize yet another recession beckons, without any normalization of either interest rates or fiscal imbalances in this cycle, expect a financial market rout every bit as large as 2008.”

Sunday, August 2, 2015

I am just wondering how much longer this Greek tragedy is going to drag on. I can understand why Eurozone leaders do not want to eject Greece from the Eurozone because they are unwilling to admit that they got it wrong as far as this artificial currency is concerned and that they broke their own rules when Greece entered the EZ. However, surely even they must realize that throwing good money after bad (as they will do if yet another bailout is agreed) is nonsensical. Rather than wringing their hands at a delay to the talks, it might be better to scrap them altogether and let the Greek government take full responsibility for its economic future. If that involves Grexit, so be it .... "European Central Bank board member Christian Noyer has called for an immediate recapitalization of banks after bail-out talks are concluded. Creditors have estimated banks will need an injection of up to €25bn to return to health." The question I would ask is "Where will this money come from ?" Will the Luxembourg Lush once again unilaterally decide that the EFSF can be used again just to spite the UK ? Will the ELA limit be raised ever higher which will definitely annoy the German taxpayer ? Of course however they manage to get the funding through one thing is for certain, the moment it goes in, the Greek population will immediately withdraw it and so the circus will continue going around and around. The eventual outcome will be the same no matter how hard they try to prevent it, Greece will either leave or be cast out of the EZ.