Sunday, August 30, 2015

The U.S. banking sector may have very little revenue exposure to China — but they still have reason to be scared.  The fear building on Wall Street is that a worsening economy in China will delay the Federal Reserve from raising U.S. interest rates indefinitely. That would be bad for the banks because the sector has been waiting for a rate hike to turbocharge earnings on mortgages and other loans...China's woes — highlighted by its currency manipulation moves — threatens to dampen the sector's earnings expectations going into 2016, analysts warned.  "A significant slowdown in China could push the Fed to delay liftoff, leading to negative consensus revisions of 2016 earnings estimates," Bank of America research analysts Erika Najarian and Ebrahim Poonawala said in a recent research report.  Najarian and Poonawala see bank earnings per share hurt by 10% to 15% if the Fed delays raising rates until the end of 2016. A rate hike "is by far the single biggest positive catalyst remaining for bank stocks," the BofA analysts said.  A delay "would change our bullish outlook for the sector," they said in the report.   "Every single U.S. bank is affected by this," agreed Erik Oja, banking analyst with S&P Capital IQ. Citigroup also has indirect exposure to China in that it does business with countries, like Brazil, that sell raw materials to China, Oja warned.  In terms of direct revenue exposure, the danger is minuscule, analysts said. Citigroup has the greatest direct exposure at 1.2%, followed by JPMorgan Chase with just 0.7%.  This week, China weakened its currency in a bid to boost exports by making them cheaper. The central's banks' move to manipulate the currency has sparked fears that China's economic slowdown is worse than expected. That could push the Fed to move more cautiously when it comes to raising U.S. interest rates, which would signal a stronger U.S. economy.

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