Thursday, August 28, 2014

You can't possibly have debt pooling (which is what stimulus would essentially become) without fiscally responsible states. If France is allowed to breach the deficit target again, and indefinately as Michel Sapin pretty much asked Merkel, then it's a green light for states to never reform and just spend as the buck won't stop with their national central bank, just the distant ECB. Without full political intergration it'll be a disaster.
I mention France as it's the lynchpin - it's the 2nd biggest economy in the eurozone but suffering from complete political failure. It can't reform and won't. Germany cannot possibly handle this.
Merkel should put a bullet in the Euro before it exports deflation eveywhere... What fool would suggest that Greece and Portugal can compete on a level playing field (ie: with no chance to devalue periodically and the same interest rate) against Germany?...The youth of those countries have no chance, they end up leaving for Germany (and the UK) to get work, thus compounding the problems. Taxes to Germany and UK and peanuts to the outliers. Germany doesn't want to leave the Euro, all they've done is lent to the broken countries and need their money back. If Germany left the Euro zone the natural balance would be devaluation of their debt. It will go on until the lights come on in these countries with 25% + youth unemployment and realise they've destroyed a whole generation....
The only elegant solution is to split the Euro into two: the northern states forming the NordEuro (or DMark...) with the southern states forming the EuroLight. Thus allowing the DMark to float up, the EuroLight to depreciate and each half taking the necessary writeoffs. Otherwise it is going to explode with a messy bang.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Mr Macron suggested that France’s labour markets were trapped by regulations that created obstacles for the jobless."

This is not News 'France' has known this for decades which it is why it has used its dominant position in Brussels to get the same regulation inflicted on other Countries to have a 'level playing field' - that is everyone else equally handycapped so as not to be more competitive.

The French don't want to work more than 35 hours.... what and lose their tax credits and alowances by increased earning!

Welfare Statism = Why work for it when the State will give it you for doing nothing by robbing others and/or borrowing it and sticking future generations with the bill?