Monday, July 8, 2013

...the German model is really a "beggar thy neighbor"

Schröder's economic "reforms" entailed gutting social security and unemployment benefits and eliminating the minimum wage in order to force young/unemployed Germans to go to work for one euro an hour (literally). Has this worked? Only sort of. True, the dramatic reduction of labor costs has been one of the keys to Germany's phenomenal export-oriented growth over the last decade. Combined with the artificial deprecation brought about by the adoption of the Euro, it's helped Germany maintain an extremely favorable balance of trade vis à vis other members of the Eurozone. What this means is that Germany's "success" has been built by selling more to their neighbors than their neighbors sell to them. (Internal demand on the other hand has flat lined; the German "model" is entirely predicated on exports.) Here's the thing though: it's impossible for all Eurozone members to maintain a trade surplus towards each-other; for one country to maintain such a surplus, another must have a deficit. Calls for the Mediterranean states to emulate the German model are thus deeply paradoxical; were the PIGS to run such a surplus, who would eat the deficit?
In other words, the German model is really a "beggar thy neighbor" policy, one which literally requires the impoverishment of the Mediterranean states. For ten years this kind of worked: Germany sold more to Spain et al than it purchased, then recycled those profits back to the periphery in the form of lines of credit, allowing those countries to purchase even more goods yielding greater profits, etc, etc. (Rinse and repeat.) Eventually the imbalance grew too deep for anyone to ignore and hey presto we had the start of the Eurozone crisis.
So, with shades of Plato's pharmakon, what the author is here calling for is to treat Europe with more of the poison that caused it's illness in the first place. What he identifies as Germany's "successful example" is actually the source of the crisis, not its resolution. A real solution would require the Germans to adopt a new policy based on internal demand, increasing domestic purchasing power by (for example) establishing a minimum wage and strengthening the working classes... Yes, the German mercantilist strategy cannot be maintained indefinitely and they do need to switch from an export driven economic strategy to one more balanced by domestic demand. And yes, the internal disparities and inconsistencies within the Eurozone make escape much more difficult (if not impossible) for the Southern periphery, including possibly France also.
But there are two further problems which are really at the genesis of the Eurozone's economic difficulties - one of which is shared with the UK. First, most of Europe (including the UK) has been running consistent deficits (trade and budget), and while one can argue about when and how and how fast these deficits are reversed, ultimately they will need to be for sustainability. It was not the economic disparities of the Eurozone per se which created their current difficulties, but the lack of flexibility to respond to the credit crisis. The other major problem is the sclerotic nature of a lot of Eurozone economies (eg France, Spain), with myriad obstacles and costs put in the way of enterprise and real job creation, and the disincentives to employment and inward investment.
 

2 comments:

Anonymous said...



Monday’s Eurogroup will discuss the third review on Greece’s economic adjustment programme and Spain’s bank recapitalisation programme. Speaking in Aix-en-Provence Sunday, Commission President Rehn noted a “reasonable chance” of agreement on Greece and added that any talk of debt restructuring was premature. While we believe Greece will ultimately need debt restructuring, this is highly unlikely this side of the German elections (22 September).

In Portugal, weekend developments saw agreement reached for CDS-PP leader Paulo Portas to become vice president and thus avoid an early election. Further discussions will be held this week, but as the Troika prepares to arrive in Lisbon on 15 July, a certain calm appears to have returned to Portuguese politics. The issue that Portugal may ultimately need an additional aid programme remains, however, as Portuguese leaders are likely to seek a further easing of budget targets.


9.27am BST

Troika deal details


Details of that troika deal with the Greek government are up online here and highlights include a prediction of a return to growth in 2014:


Staff teams from the European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB), and International Monetary Fund (IMF) have concluded their review mission to Greece. The mission has reached staff-level agreement, ad referendum, with the authorities on the economic and financial policies needed to ensure the programme is on track to achieve its objectives.

The mission and the authorities agreed that the macroeconomic outlook remains broadly in line with programme projections, with prospects for a gradual return to growth in 2014. The outlook remains uncertain, however.

While important progress continues to be made, policy implementation is behind in some areas...

Anonymous said...

Eurogroup to look at Greece, Spanish banks and Portugal's political turmoil


Ahead of the eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels later today, analysts say the focus will be on Greece, on Spain’s bank recapitalisation plan and on Portugal after the political upheaval there.

Michael Hewson, senior market analyst at CMC Markets says Porugal’s problems will probably be high on the agenda at today’s meeting “with pressure likely to be brought to bear for an easing to austerity, across the board.” He continues:


This is likely to fall on deaf ears, given the upcoming September elections in Germany.

The agenda is also likely to include Europe’s perennial problem child of Greece where once again the government is falling short of its fiscal targets, with a new funding gap opening up as the government continues to delay in restructuring its public sector...

The recent Cyprus bailout is also likely to be reviewed as the country continues to struggle to make economic progress in the wake of the decimation of its financial sector.