The worst effects of the European recession risk becoming permanent in places, according to a left-leaning think tank. The IPPR's latest report pointed to the high level of unemployment and underemployment across Europe and said the chances of these becoming entrenched is "deeply alarming". It said there was 10% unemployment and a 5% underemployment rate in Europe. The UK's main problem was low productivity, the IPPR said. The official unemployment rate for the 28 countries in the EU was 9.3% in September, down from 9.4% the previous month. The rate in the 19 countries that use the euro stood at 10.8%, down from 10.9% in August. The IPPR said that unemployed workers risked being left behind as globalisation and technological progress lead to changes in the skills that employers require. The report suggested that European countries look to Germany as a good example of maintaining workplace skills and high productivity rates. Germany - Europe's largest economy - invests 50% more on average than other countries in research and development. The report also found that the UK's in-work training had fallen by 4 percentage points since 2008 - the largest decline for any EU country. The IPPR said it welcomed the apprenticeship levy and the target for creating three million apprenticeships. However, it called on the Chancellor, George Osborne, to hold off making any further cuts to the education and adult skills budget in Wednesday's Spending Review.
Saturday, November 28, 2015
Friday, November 27, 2015
"Eurozone economy 'sizzles'"....hahahaha...That's what fat or wet things do when they're dropped into the frying-pan (or the fire).The action is elsewhere...The Italian government has permitted other healthy note banks to bail out 4 minor banks from foul hanging debt, and interestingly their taxpayers won't foot the bill. Believe it ? I wonder how many other fledging sparkasse banks elsewhere in the EU would dream of that alliance ? Things aren't so sound, as the author portrays otherwise....Since a couple of months Draghi has been mouthing QE, even more negative deposit rates. Thus I would expect a group of business people whose focus and whose businesses evaluate their performance upon short and early middle-term - purchasing managers - to come in with this informed predictions. Predictions they are and generally the actuals cause them to be recast (sorry readjusted) down by a meaningful portion. Also PMI for Germany is largely meaningless: IFO does it better and normally somewhat blacker than PMI. These PMI numbers have been contrived better by Draghi's remarks. One can't help wondering if his oratory had been so good as to have pumped them even higher if his move to QE+ would have been questioned. Maybe Draghi wants QE+ questioned...Central bank watchers believe that Mario Draghi, the ECB president, could unveil both interest rate cuts and an expansion of an existing eurozone quantitative easing programme next week. “With recent comments highlighting how the central bank remains disappointed with the strength of the upturn at this stage of the recovery, November’s slightly improved PMI reading will no doubt do little to dissuade policymakers that more needs to be done,” said Mr Williamson. The Markit survey showed signs of "ongoing deflationary pressures", linked to a fall in commodity prices. The French economy could stand to benefit from looser ECB policy after the November PMI showed that business activity rose at the slowest pace in three months.
Thursday, November 26, 2015
The eurozone economy started to “sizzle” in November, as leading surveys showed that the currency bloc is growing at its fastest rate since early 2011. The euro area purchasing managers’ index (PMI) climbed 0.5 points to 54.4, beating the 53.9 expected by analysts. Any number above 50 would suggest that private sector companies are expanding. Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, which compiles the PMI data, said that the figures showed “a welcome acceleration of eurozone growth”. The report signalled that the eurozone GDP would grow by 0.4pc in the final quarter of the year. Growth of 0.5pc could be achieved “if we get even a modest uptick in December”, Mr Williamson said...Central bank watchers believe that Mario Draghi, the ECB president, could unveil both interest rate cuts and an expansion of an existing eurozone quantitative easing programme next week. “With recent comments highlighting how the central bank remains disappointed with the strength of the upturn at this stage of the recovery, November’s slightly improved PMI reading will no doubt do little to dissuade policymakers that more needs to be done,” said Mr Williamson. The Markit survey showed signs of "ongoing deflationary pressures", linked to a fall in commodity prices. The French economy could stand to benefit from looser ECB policy after the November PMI showed that business activity rose at the slowest pace in three months. ... Wowwwww...what a bunch of crap !!!!!
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
The Organization for Cooperation and Economic Development (OCDE) has worsened its estimates concerning the growth of the world's economy, for the second time in the last three months, as the slowdown of the emerging markets is affecting other countries as well, such as Germany and Japan.
The OCDE forecasts that the global economy will see a 2.9% advance this year, down from its 3% September estimate, and after the 3.4% growth of 2014, respectively. According to the OCDE, the economic growth will accelerate to 3.3% next year, down from the previous 3.6% forecast. "The growth outlook for the global economy has worsened this year. The forecast for emerging markets is currently the main reason for the global uncertainty", the OCDE warns: "The difficulties on the emerging markets are greater. If the situation of those countries deteriorates, the growth of Japan and the Eurozone will be affected". According to the OCDE, the Eurozone will see 1.5% growth in 2015, and 1.8% in 2016.
Another flop for Jean-Claude Juncker's migration initiative as a major bounty fund for Africa raises just €78million - out of a target of €1.8 billion. The European Commission president wanted to raise the money to give to African states in exchange for them accepting the deportation of migrants. But a whip round among member states raised just a fraction of the target, leaving the entire deportation programme in doubt. It follows the flop of the relocation scheme which has moved just over 100 people out of a target of 160,000. I'm told Juncker and Merkel will press for more money for Turkey
The leader of the People's Movement Party, Traian Băsescu, feels that the decision of president Klaus Iohannis to nominate Dacian Cioloş as prime-minister is "a good solution". Băsescu has made no further comments, even though it wasn't long ago that he was harshly criticizing the solution of a technocratic government. Sunday night, on B1TV, Traian Băsescu said that the "technocratic solution" is for "banana republics", and he said that appointing a technocrat or a general as government head was basically "the same". According to Mediafax, at the time, the former president also said that the creation of a technocratic government would represent "a guaranteed failure": "It would be the greatest mistake, who in the Parliament would listen to those technocrats? They have to pass budgets, they have to pass laws, who would listen to them? These parliament members, good or bad, have to do their homework and work with a political government. This technocrat stuff has never worked anywhere in Europe (...) The technocratic solution is for banana republics, bringing in technocrats or bringing in generals it's basically the same (...) A technocratic government would be a guaranteed failure". On the other hand, over the last few days, Traian Băsescu has been saying that president Klaus Iohannis has very few options for the prime-minister position, namely Dacian Cioloş or Lucian Croitoru. The latter was his option during the 2009 political crisis, when the Boc government was dismissed through a vote of no-confidence by the Parliament, and when the majority at the time proposed Klaus Iohannis as prime-minister.
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
Europe braced for a revolutionary Leftist backlash after Greece .. He has vowed to block anti-austerity measures such as reverses to wage cuts, rehiring of public sector workers, and halting privatisations. A constitutional amendment would require a two-thirds majority vote in the country's 230-seat parliament. It cannot pass with the support of the Socialists who are the second largest party in parliament. If the motion fails, Anibal Cavaco Silva, the president, faces the choice of appointing a caretaker regime for six months, or relenting and allowing the Leftists to enter power.
He is due to make a decision in the coming days. Indebted Portugal is still the problem child of the Eurozone . The political stalemate comes as Portugal's economy has stalled. GDP growth ground to a halt at just 0pc in the third quarter for the former bail-out country. Portugal's former international creditors in the IMF and Brussels have urged any new regime to continue cutting government spending, reduce debt levels and make crucial economic reforms. "Since the onset of the eurozone crisis, Portuguese voters have shown remarkable loyalty to their traditional political parties," said Ben May at Oxford Economics. "The pace of structural reforms has dwindled and could even go into reverse under a Left-wing alliance", he said