Italian industrial data - New industrial orders data from Italy shows the deep damage caused to its manufacturing base in the last year. Italian industrial orders slumped 10% year-on-year in March, after 12 months of recession, austerity measures, and political uncertainty. But orders were actually 1.6% higher than in February, a somewhat encouraging sign for the future . Industrial sales (as opposed to future orders) tumbled 7.6% year-on-year, and were down 0.9% on a monthly basis. Steve Collins, global head of dealing at London & Capital Asset Management, dubbed the figures 'dire'....My take on what has been going on is that the "corporates" that have all the unelected people at the EU,ECB,IMF,WTO etc. on speed dial have decided that the social systems of the "West" are too expensive and bad for business. The unelected do not care - the revolving door means that after they have done their master's bidding they can look forwards to nice directorships to supplement their pensions. Big business spends billions on lobbyists and political donations - they do not do this other than to influence events. Rebalancing, restructuring, global race - words used by the elite as they re-order things in this "post democratic age"....How many democracies have been overthrown recently?
National budgets are now subject to the Troika for several countries....This Troika is telling countries how many people to sack, and what state assets to sell off. "Post democratic age" has been mentioned by Barroso a few times, now Lagarde is saying the same (not sure about HVP).  Draghi said he would do "anything it takes" to save the Euro (note - save a currency, nothing about saving the life chances of tens of millions of people).
Also - if you get bored you may want to look up what protections from prosecution the likes of Draghi enjoy, and who has the authority to stop him from doing whatever he wants to.
Anyway, I must go...I'm taking my close friends out to lunch before the zombie apocalypse starts.

UK EUROPEAN MEMBERSHIP - We don't want to be part of a United Europe governed by a socialist unelected junta from Brussels. Put the business case to one side, this is about democracy, liberty and self governance.  I would rather be a little bit poorer now but in charge of my own destiny, than ruled by a socialist political elite which will in time become even more corrupt than now and make me much poorer in the long run. If the rest of Europe want to unite under a Brussels government then let them, but we don't want it. I suspect if other countries were ever given a vote, they would not want it either.  But surprise, surprise, the unelected elites don't like elections because they get the wrong answer to their ever closer union. The business leaders quoted should know better than to neglect democracy for the sake of profits....
Whilst the economic benefits of membership may, or may not be, overwhelming, (and Lord Lawson, Denis Healey and others have already questioned whether the economic benefits are as great as made out), that is not the issue.  The issue is that there are a number of fundamental problems with the eurozone and the EU itself which are precipitating the continent into potential conflict.  Firstly, as is apparent from Greece, Cyprus, Spain, Italy and Portugal, not a single person in those countries has a vote to change let alone influence policy being directed by Brussels. This democratic deficit in a time when the Euro-"elite" are pushing a solitary austerity agenda, without regard to the consequences of those policies not just on families and communities but half the continent, is fanning the flames of extreme nationalism in those countries. Until such time as the people of Europe get a vote to get rid of the idiots in charge in Brussels, we should have nothing to do with it.  Secondly, even if the policy of "internal devaluation" is successful, that will mean a worker in those countries will have to work harder and longer for a Euro than a worker, say, in Germany. So the exodus of the youth from those countries will accelerate and some will go within the Union to areas where there is work. This will drive down wages in the destination countries and will ignite talk of "jonny foreigner taking our jobs" that we've heard incessantly here. How well that will play in Germany is anyone's guess.  Thirdly, the accounts of the EU haven't been signed off by their auditors for, I believe, something like 10 years due to fraud and misappropriation of funds.  Finally, and most importantly, if the eurozone members are successful in driving through a Federal State (without obtaining specific consent for this from the individual national electorates), what impact is that going to have upon the operation of the EU? Currently, we have 27 nations, some with greater weight than others. With a Federal State of 17 nations, that bloc will outvote and outweigh all the other members. Policy (as the SNP seems to argue) will be set to the agenda of the bigger constituent. Ergo, the UK and all the other non-eurozone members will be outvoted on every measure, and what guarantees are there going to be to protect those countries from such policy focus? Given the EU's declaration of economic war against the City of London with the FTT (stealing money that would otherwise go to the UK Exchequer from the City), capping bonuses (bureaucracy gone mad and aimed directly at the City), with seemingly precious little the UK can do about it, it does not augur well for future protection.   I remain unconvinced about the economic benefits of membership. The EU will want access to our market. But is the EU necessarily the dynamic growth zone for the future? It doesn't look like it.   However, the risk of extreme nationalism arising from the current policies and the utter devastation being wrought across half a continent to "save" the Euro is not a price worth paying to secure economic benefits. We should be leading Europe away from the precipice towards which its bureaucrats appear determined to push it. Clearly this isn't happening at present, so its time to leave. Not, as some would suggest, to a Norwegian or Swiss style semi-detached model, but complete detachment.  And the sooner the better.

ROME—Italy's new government took its first concrete steps Friday, announcing some €3 billion ($3.86 billion) in economic measures aimed at offering relief to households and workers amid the country's longest postwar recession. Prime Minister Enrico Letta, who was sworn in last month as head of a coalition cabinet, said an unpopular tax on primary residences would be suspended and an extra €1 billion would be pumped into a wage-supplement program.  The measures were the bare minimum of what the new government has pledged. Notably, none of the announced benefits address what politicians have identified as the national priority: youth unemployment. Still, they signal a breakthrough of sorts given the stark political differences among the politicians that make up the patchwork majority behind Italy's first bipartisan government in more than 60 years.  Mr. Letta and his deputy, Angelino Alfano representing the mainstream left and right parties respectively—were upbeat about the day's cabinet meeting, where ministers managed to avoid the squabbles that have characterized recent meetings.  "We scored a goal on our first try," said Mr. Alfano, whose conservative People of Freedom party had demanded that the new property tax—introduced by former Prime Minister Mario Monti be scrapped. Mr. Letta, however, emphasized that only the summer installment of the tax on primary residences is being suspended. That is because the government intends this summer to overhaul the way Italy's tax code impacts real estate overall. Rome draws €44 billion in revenue from taxes, tariffs and other levies related to private property. About half of that is linked to ownership and the rest to service charges. The planned reform will "help households and the construction sector," the prime minister said, adding that businesses would be offered tax credits and breaks on properties they owned as part of production processes.  The decision to lower a tax on property is popular, because of Italy's high home-ownership rates. But it also reduces the government's room to maneuver on another important issue: lowering income and business taxes. Italian income taxes are unusually high even by European standards and hobble competitiveness and output, said Timo del Carpio, an economist at RBC Capital Markets in London.  The property tax was an efficient tool to spread out Italy's painful fiscal adjustment amid the euro-zone debt crisis, said Mr. Carpio. The decision to undo it shows that Mr. Letta's "fragile coalition is already proving to be an obstacle" toward that goal, he said.  While Mr. Alfano's party demanded the property tax cut, supporters of Mr. Letta's center-left Democratic Party wanted more money for a welfare program that has come under strain amid the economic downturn. The measure announced on Friday will provide new money for furlough schemes, helping companies keep their workforces intact. However, because those on furlough aren't part of the hoards of jobless people in Italy, the new measures do little to help tackle the country's 11.5% unemployment.  Mr. Letta is also working on a plan to offer tax breaks for new hiring but no final decisions have been taken, in part because the program is likely to prove far more costly than the measures announced Friday.   In an important shift from the past two years of Italy's economic policy, the latest measures will be "100% funded by public spending cuts and not by shifting the tax burden somewhere else," Mr. Alfano said. He didn't give details.  As things stand, Rome has little margin in making its future moves. Mr. Letta reiterated his intention to keep this year's budget deficit below 3.0% of gross domestic product, in accordance with European Union rules. That should allow Italy to be released from European strictures on countries with excessive deficits—an outcome cabinet officials expect will provide further fiscal relief by lowering sovereign borrowing costs.   "These are just our first steps," Mr. Letta said.

About 100,000 protesters, led by trade unionists, have rallied in the Italian capital Rome against the policies of the new coalition government. Wielding red flags and placards, they urged the center-left Prime Minister, Enrico Letta, to scrap austerity measures and focus on job creation.  Public trust in his fragile coalition with the center-right is dropping, opinion polls suggest. The country is experiencing its longest recession in more than 40 years.  National debt is now about 127% of annual economic output, second only to Greece in the eurozone.

An estimated 100,000 people, including many of the young jobless, took part in the protest march, but there were some noteworthy absentees - the leaders of the left-wing Democratic Party, the party of Prime Minister Enrico Letta. The head of the metal worker's union, Maurizio Landini, taunted the party leadership, accusing them of being afraid of coming out on to the streets.

Mr Letta is faced with an almost impossible task - creating new jobs at a moment when the Italian economy is suffering one of its most serious recessions since the economic boom in the 1950s and 60s. Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi almost daily threatens to withdraw his support from the fragile coalition.

Opinion polls suggest growing support for Mr Berlusconi, despite his dismal economic record, and lower and lower approval ratings for Mr. Letta. Before taking office, Mr. Letta vowed to make job creation his priority, but critics are unhappy that he has focused on property tax reform. The issues of social justice and poverty came up when German Chancellor Angela Merkel had talks with the new Pope at the Vatican on Saturday

The IMF suggests that as soon as central banks signal that they are readying themselves to halt QE, bond prices are likely to fall sharply, as investors "run for the door". Interest rates, which move in the opposite direction to bond prices, would jump and central banks might be forced to push up rates even further to prove they have not lost control of inflation.

"The potential sharp rise in long-term interest rates could prove difficult to control and might undermine the recovery (including through effects on financial stability and investment). It could also induce large fluctuations in capital flows and exchange rates," the IMF warned.

The research analyses the potential losses to central banks under three possible scenarios, from a relatively benign one percentage point rise in interest rates, to a much more dramatic six percentage point increase in short-term borrowing costs.

Under the most extreme scenario the losses to the exchequer would be £80bn, so even if the Bank is right about the £60bn gains for the Treasury from QE, that could still blow a £20bn hole in the public finances.

Economists stressed that any direct costs of QE should be weighed against the wider benefits to the economy. Erik Britton, of City consultancy Fathom, said, "the losses could be large - that much is true, and they would be borne by the taxpayer; but that would only be in a scenario where we were back in growth, and the benefits to the Treasury of that would outweigh those costs."

The IMF's researchers stressed that the prospect of losses on central banks' balance sheets should not prevent them from unwinding their unconventional policies, but warned that, "the path ahead will be challenging, with many unknowns."

Well, I guess that's it. The EU is done for.   Europe was doomed in any eventuality, of course. Ultimately the only sustainable way to compete with countries like China and Bangladesh is to lower the living standards of the majority to similar levels.  When it comes to grim reading about the current European condition, it does not rain but it pours.  The latest catalogue of unremitting gloom (unless you're a German) comes in a 49-page survey of public opinion in eight EU countries conducted in March by Pew pollsters.  The results show support for the EU has shrunk from 60% to 45% in a year on average across the eight countries.  The more detailed findings are that public support for EU integration has eroded strongly, with Germans alone in favor of handing more powers to Brussels to tackle the four-year economic and financial crisis that is severely sapping EU confidence and reinforcing the sense of inexorable medium-term decline.  "Positive views of the EU are at or near their low point in most of the countries surveyed, even among the young," said the pollsters, who talked to nearly 8,000 people.  It is striking how the policy responses of EU leaders to the currency crisis are at such odds with public opinion, as centripetal political action clashes with centrifugal national moods.  The crisis management of the past three years has essentially seen Berlin, Brussels, and others resort to technocratic fixes in an incremental process of pooling economic and fiscal policy powers in the eurozone.  Outside of Germany, however, public support for surrendering such powers from the national level to Brussels, as is happening, is declining rapidly, generating an ever widening "democratic deficit" in the EU that the leaders regularly bemoan but have done nothing to address.  In a big speech on Europe last month, the leading German political thinker, Jürgen Habermas, diagnosed the elite policy responses to the crisis and concluded that "postponing democracy is always dangerous".  Pew's findings dovetail with Eurobarometer poll results revealed last month in the Guardian that showed a collapse in public support for the EU in the union's six biggest countries, making up two-thirds of the half-billion population.  The survey results are particularly spectacular for France, reinforcing the sense of drift a year into the term of President François Hollande and underlining the estrangement between Paris and Berlin.  "The prolonged economic crisis is separating the French from the Germans – threatening the Franco-German axis that has long driven European integration. And it has separated the Germans from everyone else.  "No European country is becoming more dispirited and disillusioned faster than France. French public opinion has soured on a number of measures in the last year … Even more dramatically, French public opinion on a range of issues is now looking less like that in Germany and more like that in Spain, Italy and Greece … The French are also beginning to doubt their commitment to the European project, with 77% believing European economic integration has made things worse for France, an increase of 14 points." Pretty much the only optimism evident in the survey is in Germany, leading the pollsters to conclude that the Germans are living "on a different continent". This acute divergence in perception on how the crisis has affected Europe, say officials and diplomats closely involved in the crisis management, makes things much more difficult to fix because the cultural and psychological realities in the different countries are so varied.

A British exit from the EU would send fateful signals around the world, in the US and the far east, of an inward-looking Europe mired in fragmentation, provincialism and bickering. While Merkel and senior cabinet members such asWolfgang Schäuble, the finance minister, favour renegotiating the Lisbon treaty to push through big political and economic policy shifts in the eurozone, Berlin acknowledges that this is a tall order because of the resistance in many other countries, mainly but not only France. Cameron argues the single currency crisis has changed the EU, and is transforming the eurozone into a much more integrated core Europe, changing Britain's status, and wants the treaty renegotiated to reflect this fundamental shift. But senior officials in Brussels warn that any moves to substantially rewrite the Lisbon treaty would trigger a referendum domino effect, with not only Britain, but Ireland, parts of Scandinavia, perhaps the Netherlands and then France needing to stage referendums on a new deal. The leading government figures in Berlin acknowledged that Hollande was opposed. The damage to Hollande could be twofold. The treaty changes would inevitably entail transfers of fiscal and economic policymaking powers to Brussels, something Paris opposes, then possibly a national vote on the new deal in an increasingly Eurosceptic country, according to recent opinion polls. Hollande played a prominent role in the yes campaign for the French referendum on an EU constitution in 2005 and lost. A repeat of the failure could cost him his office. The differences between Berlin and Paris are reinforcing their estrangement, with no improvement expected until the dust settles after the German elections in September when Merkel is bidding for a third term. Berlin is also worried that France, Italy, and Spain are stuck in a vicious downward cycle of growing unemployment, austerity, and relative lack of meaningful reform. The Germans are relaxing the austerity that has been the principal response to the sovereign debt crisis of the past three years, but are demanding sweeping structural reforms in return in the form of labour law and labour market changes, longer working weeks, pension and social security reforms. Berlin is prepared to give France and Spain an extra two years to reach budget deficit targets under the euro rulebook, but is insisting that the two years not be wasted in policy paralysis.